Auctions: Six Takeaways From A Full Spring And Summer Season Of Watch Sales In Geneva, Hong Kong, And New York
Tuesday afternoon at Sotheby’s on York Avenue in Manhattan, the gavel fell for the final time this spring and early summer, wrapping another auction season. With a moment to breathe after sales all across the world from the four major houses, we can begin to digest. These days, at the end of this season as well as at the end of the sister winter auction season, are the best times of the year to step back and evaluate the ever-turning gears of the collector watch market.
Image courtesy of Phillips.
Are the major watch auctions overly grandiose and weirdly champagne-filled at times? Sure. But if boiled down to the core, this is the most transparent look we as collectors and watch-interested folks have into what’s hot and what’s not. Going further, as pessimistic as some may be as to “truth” and “trust” from the major houses, at the end of the day, the auction teams offer thousands of watches for sale over the course of a few months and work to find new homes for each and every one. Along the way, there are headline-grabbing results in the millions and sleepers below $10,000, and something to be learned from everything in between.
So after paying close attention to all the sales, I’ll save you the total dollar amounts each house achieved and rather offer six subjectively chosen yet objectively backed-up observations. Onward!
1. Fresh-To-Market Is King
Get this, if collectors have never seen a reference or an example before, they’re more likely to go crazy for it. As base-level and stale as that take may read, it’s unavoidable as the lead takeaway from this group of sales. “Fresh-to-market” can mean a few different things in an auction catalog, though. Take, for example, the platinum Vacheron Constantin ref. 6448 minute repeater offered by Phillips in Geneva last month, which was an unknown variant within a known and very collectible reference. A piece unique as the only platinum example produced, this watch came to market via the family of the original owner in Mexico and sold for $848,840, nearly three times the high estimate.
Phillips Geneva lot 57 – a 1961 Vacheron Constantin ref. 6448 in platinum – $848,840. Image courtesy of Phillips.
Fresh can also mean an example of a highly produced reference that has simply never been to market before. Also at Phillips but in New York this past weekend, a stainless steel Patek Philippe ref. 570 sold for $1,066,800. Here, the bidding frenzy could be attributed to the stellar case condition and unrestored dial, but the watch being fresh adds a serious multiplier. A 570 with a three-tone Breguet numeral dial in a steel case is already grail-worthy, but because this new example redefined the condition tiers for the variant, collectors go wild. It had never been seen before and is now the best-known condition-wise — that’s why it’s a million-dollar watch. Similar factors were at play in Hong Kong, where a yellow-gold Patek ref. 96 with a black dial sold for $79,459.
Phillips New York lot 95 – a 1943 Patek Philippe ref. 570 in steel – $1,066,800. Image courtesy of Phillips.
Sotheby’s New York lot 46 – a 1968 Rolex Paul Newman Daytona ref. 6241 – $914.400. Image courtesy of Sotheby’s.
Sotheby’s New York lot 45 – a 1969 Rolex Paul Newman Daytona ref. 6263 – $762,000. Image courtesy of Sotheby’s.
The fresh-to-market effect is based on surprising potential bidders. While there might not be much surprise when seeing a Rolex “Paul Newman” Daytona in the Sotheby’s New York catalog, two, a ref. 6263 and a ref. 6241, sold surprisingly well amidst a years-long soft Newman market. So, what happened? For the 6241, the story is similar to the Patek Calatrava at Phillips — class re-defining condition. Newmans can be found; they’re rare, but not so rare you can’t buy one if you really wanted to, but finding one in true top-level condition is quite difficult. With a sharp case and all the right components, this watch was already poised for a nice result, but the “tropical” brown sub-registers took it over the top. It sold on Tuesday for $914,400, setting the public auction record for a stainless steel 6241 Newman.
The younger brother, a 6263 “Panda” Newman, sold one lot before for $762,000. A reference that is close to my heart and one I watch the market for intently (just read this), seeing an original owner, fresh-to-market example in the Sotheby’s catalog was a pleasure. I’m glad to see the market still appreciates an Oyster Newman when all the boxes are checked.
Christie’s New York lot 71 – a 1958 Rolex Explorer ref. 6610 – $40.320. Image courtesy of Christie’s.
Speaking of the somewhat squirrely market for classic vintage Rolex sport watches, Christie’s rode the fresh-to-market wave in selling a pair of early Explorers, both ref. 6610s with U.S. military provenance. Lieutenant Colonel Fayette L. Worthington’s 1955 “Red Depth” dial did slightly better, selling for $50,400, but Lieutenant Colonel Alfred N. Luttrell’s 1958 example was close behind, selling for $40,320. Collectors had never seen these watches before and Christie’s did a nice job of presenting both with photos of the original owners and lot essays describing who these men were — you might only have one chance to grab the attention of a vintage Rolex bidder in 2025 and all was squared away here from a presentation and story-telling perspective.
2. Patek Philippe 3970s Are All The Rage, And Then Some
For much of the past decade, the Patek ref. 5970 Perpetual Calendar Chronograph has been the collector darling. It’s “the last of the Lemanias” and has been gushed about on the pages of Hodinkee time and time again (even by me!). But something has shifted within the collector community over the past few years, the tide has turned towards the 5970’s old brother, the ref. 3970. Cara Barrett was ahead of the curve, detailing all of the variants and telling us why we should care more about this reference back in 2018 (hi Cara). This whole shift towards the 3970 is probably worth a full article (I’ll try to get around to that!), but let’s take a snapshot of the market today.
Christie’s Geneva lot 54 – a 2007 Patek Phillipe ref. 5004EG-028 – $$1,046,423. Image courtesy of Christie’s.
At the top level, Christie’s offered a 2007 special order white gold example in Geneva, the ref. 3970EG-028, it sold for $1,046,423, setting an auction record for the reference. The previous “most expensive” was Eric Clapton’s special order 3970EG with a salmon dial ($784,619 in 2021), a watch that frankly has a lot more going for it. In the past few months, three platinum 2nd series 3970s have sold at auction. This is a watch with possibly a dozen known examples. Phillips achieved the best result in Geneva at $571,038, but the other two weren’t far off at $417,849 (Christie’s Hong Kong) and $389,185 (Phillips Hong Kong), dinged price-wise by some condition issues. For context, an excellent example of the same watch sold for $215,062 at Phillips Geneva in 2022. The exponential price increases are currently focused on special orders, first series, and second series examples. However, almost any 3970 is now significantly more expensive than it was three years ago.
Phillips New York lot 115 – a 1998 Patek Philippe ref. 5004P-021 – $381,000. Image courtesy of Phillips.
The other complicated Patek that is closely related to the 3970 is the ref. 5004 — essentially the same watch with an added split-second complication. Whereas the price of a standard 3970 once dropped below $70,000, the 5004 has always been and will always be a very expensive watch. However, as tastes have shifted towards these 36mm Patek complications, the 5004 has also caught a bit of a tailwind. A notable example of the most common variant, 5004P-021, was sold last weekend at Phillips for $381,000, exceeding its high estimate. That’s up from $260,366 for a similar example at Sotheby’s in November of last year.
3. F.P. Journe and Journe-Adjacent Is Red Hot
While the brand is now a mainstay in any major auction house catalog, if you were paying very close attention, you would have noticed a slight peak in the Journe market about two years ago. In the waning years, prices have still been strong, don’t get me wrong, but the same upward trajectory just was not there, and the more “standard” Journes settled into a relatively stable zone. For example, if you want to buy a Chronomètre Bleu on the open market, the price is currently around $100,000, having remained stable for some time, as opposed to the range of $40,000 to $60,000 in 2021.
Phillips New York lot 8 – a 2014 F.P. Journe Tourbillon Anniversaire Historique “T30” – $889,000. Image courtesy of Phillips.
The latest Journe market craze is the truly “special” early pieces from the brand, Journe-tied watches from other brands, and limited editions throughout Journe’s history. Collectors are increasingly discerning when deciding which models and variants to chase. Let’s examine the “T30” Tourbillon Anniversaire Historique, a limited edition of 99 pieces produced in 2014 to commemorate the 30th anniversary of the completion of his first tourbillon pocket watch.
While somewhat cherry-picking, I think this model best exemplifies the Journe market of the past five years. In 2021, Phillips sold one for $529,200 when the brand’s “hype” was firmly established, but in May of last year, prices settled down, with one selling at Sotheby’s Geneva for $307,973. Finally, last Saturday, a bidding war sent an example at Phillips New York to a result of $889,000.
Christie’s New York lot 19 – a 2010s F.P. Journe Octa Calendrier “Black Label” – $453,600. Image courtesy of Christie’s.
Other “special” Journes to sell this season include an Octa Calendrier “Black Label” at Christie’s New York ($453,600), a Répétition Souveraine Smoked Sapphire at Phillips New York ($685,800), and a “ruby heart” Tourbillon Souverain at Phillips Geneva ($1,984,475).
4. Proper Vintage Audemars Piguet May Be Getting A Moment In The Sun
Let’s step into true vintage watch nerd territory for a minute here. Is this a safe space to get nerdy? Lord, I hope so. Vintage Audemars Piguet pieces produced before roughly 1970 are about as good as it gets. The brand was producing everything from complications to classy time-only pieces like jump hours in very small quantities at an extremely, extremely high level in terms of quality.
Christie’s New York lot 30 – a 1927 Audemars Piguet complete calendar in yellow gold – $119,700. Image courtesy of Christie’s.
Monaco Legend Group Lugano lot 113 – a 1931 Audemars Piguet complete calendar in white gold – $403,431. Image courtesy of Monaco Legend Group.
Monaco Legend Group Lugano lot 113 – a 1943 Audemars Piguet “world time” in yellow gold – $243,581. Image courtesy of Monaco Legend Group.
In May, outside of the big auction houses, Dr. Crott in Manheim, Germany, offered a white gold rectangular jump hour wristwatch that, even with some condition issues, exceeded its estimate of $4,500 to $22,500, selling for $59,065 — that was the first clue. Then, Monaco Legend Group put on its first sale in Lugano, Switzerland, just last week, offering a stellar group of these “true” vintage APs. The highlights were a 1943 time-only watch with a world-time register and a Valjoux cal. 13 VZAS movement, which sold for $243,581, and a full raised enamel dial rectangular calendar from 1931, selling for $403,431. All three were deserving, but the prices were surprising for such incredible vintage watches.
Those three results had me watching lot 30 at Christie’s New York very closely. This 1927 complete calendar was more common than the one at Monaco Legend Group, but presented honestly and clearly, never restored. Ultimately, it exceeded its high estimate of $100,000 and sold for $119,700. I finally have the excuse to at least ask the question: Are early AP wristwatches finally getting the attention they deserve?
5. The Vintage Cartier And Odd Dress “Trend” Isn’t Going Away
If you were hoping the vintage Cartier and quirky dress watch wave was just a passing phase, it might be time to reset your expectations. Collectors continue to chase rare, design-forward, and democratically wrist-friendly pieces, especially those that blur the line between jewelry and watchmaking. What once felt like a niche interest for the aesthetically inclined has become a consistent theme across nearly every catalog this season.
Phillips New York lot 38 – a 1978 Cartier Bamboo “Jumbo” ref. 78102 – $177,800. Image courtesy of Phillips.
Let’s start with Cartier, which remains the epicenter of this trend. The Bamboo (Phillips New York, $177,800) and a unique-piece Cloche de Cartier in white gold (Christie’s New York, $189,000) both hammered well above expectations. Phillips also offered a 1970s Tank Louis with a black dial, a variant that was news to me; it did well, selling for $83,820, far above its estimate, but I thought it might have gone even higher, to be honest.
Maybe I’m too caught up in the Cartier craze. A really important Cartier that you may have missed was the 1929 Tank Obus Savonette at Christie’s Geneva, which sold well at $69,300 all-in. This was especially notable for its honest condition and real rarity, as it was produced much earlier than the rest, when the brand made about 100 watches of any kind each year.
Christie’s New York lot 77 – a 1996 Cartier Cloche piece unique – $189,000. Image courtesy of Christie’s.
Sotheby’s New York lot 77 – a 1969 Breguet Empire – $107,950. Image courtesy of Sotheby’s.
Phillips New York lot 133 – a 1980s Bulgari Serpenti Tubogas – $170,180. Image courtesy of Phillips.
Outside Cartier, the slightly dressy and odd aesthetic is pervasive and leading to high results. Sotheby’s New York probably set a record for a Breguet Empire at $107,950, and, similarly, I’ve never known a gemset Audemars perpetual calendar to sell for more than the emerald-set example at Christie’s Geneva at $702,598. A yellow gold concealed watch by Patek Philippe sold at Christie’s NYC for $52,920, and a probably unique Bulgari Serpenti Tubogas, offered at Phillips New York, closed at $170,180 — confirming there’s a real appetite for sculptural watches.
6. Right Now May Be The Best, Or The Worst Time To Buy A De Bethune
Consider this a mini version of the classic Hodinkee “Is it the best time or worst time to buy a De Bethune?” article. Christie’s and Sotheby’s are still running online sales as a part of this season, but once those are finalized, 36 De Bethunes will have been offered for sale across the major houses in the past three months. For a relatively young brand producing a few hundred watches a year, 36 is a lot.
The De Bethune high watermark of this season, a 2019 DB28 Steel Wheels Blue LE of 10, sold for $104,642 on an estimate of $83,049 to $166,099 at Christie’s Geneva. Image courtesy of Christie’s.
To give the auction house teams credit, they did a nice job of finding buyers for all of these De Bethunes, most sold in the mid to low estimate range, and only four of the 36 passed or went unsold. Yet still, none of the group really wowed, exceeding an estimate by any large measure, and, speaking as someone who was in the room for a few of these sales, the bidding was slow. That’s not to say the brand doesn’t have serious collectors; it certainly does, but the market has a hard time digesting quantity from a brand like De Bethune. While it’s important not to judge the entire brand based on a limited sample, just this morning, longtime CEO Pierre Jacques has stepped down. De Bethune’s performance on the secondary market will be particularly worth watching going forward.
Long De Bethune story short, if you’ve been after one, it could be a great time to buy, but be wary over the next few auction seasons. With the production being what it is, if we continue to see dozens of examples appear at auction and relatively “meh” results, the watch world could begin to look at De Bethune in a different light.
And the low watermark, a 2015 DB28 “Grand Sport California” LE of 5, unsold on an estimate of $47,457 to $94,914 at the same Christie’s Geneva sale. Image courtesy of Christie’s.
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